Goldman Sachs - In the News

GS is in the news, again, and their stock tumbled, in reaction to a law suit brought on by th SEC alleging that Goldman engaged in fraud as it relates to a CDO transaction from 2007.

Their official reaction is that this suit is unfounded. The full suit can be found here. I have received many phone calls and emails asking what do I think? I have not worked at GS for 8 years, nor do I engage in any sort of discussions with them on this topic but many of the conversations with others have brought up the timing of this suit. The administration is obviously pushing for financial reform, and are having trouble getting it passed. The more outraged the public continues to get against Wall Street, the more pressure on politicians to pass a tough bill. The 'street' has obviouslybeen lobbying hard against it. Now could GS be in the wrong? I would have no idea one way or the other. What is clear is that the level of scrutiny has gone way, way up, and so has the risk associated with owning the stock of financial services companies.

Ironically I attended a panel yesterday yesterday on corporate ethics in the banking industy hosted by Auburn Seminary - the panel included Ken Feinburg ( the pay czar ), John Thain ( former GS President and now CIT CEO ), Beth Brooke ( Global Vice-Chair of Public Policy at Earnst and Young), and more....I cannot report on the discussion but I can write more on the topic, which I plan to do....

Auburn - "How Women Will Change the World in the 21st Century" and more...

Thursday was a very special day. My dear friend Katharine Henderson was inaugurated as the incoming President of Auburn Theological Seminary, and my did we celebrate both her and Auburn! The opening event was a panel discussion with some of the most incredible women I have ever met, and it was truly magical. Our moderator was Lynn Sherr, award winning broadcast journalist from ABC news ( pictured right), and an expert on Susan B. Anthony. We were brought together by Katharine as women of diverse faith backgrounds, but with much in common, a desire to make the world a better place. This panel was religious diversity in action! We talk often of why having a multitude of perspectives at the table can lead to better and more inclusive outcomes, and if you were there in the room on Thursday ( and I hope you can soon watch it on YOUTUBE) you would have been given the visual of that. My other panelists were as follows:

Maha Alkhateeb - The Co- Director of the Peaceful Families Project and a young Muslim, American woman leader. She is committed to help end domestic violence within Muslim families. Bless you Maha.

Sharon Brous - One of the 50 most influential women Rabbi's who's vision is to "build a Jewish community which stands at the intersection or rich spiritual and religious practice, and social justice. " Sharon spoke of how she tries to help bridge the space between what the world is, and what it ought to be. Sharon, you completely rock.

Yvette Flunder - Presiding Bishop, Senior Pastor of City of Refuge United Church of Christ, and African American. Yvette spoke of the power of the resurection, and how we might do that every day by helping and serving one another. Yvette I am your sister.

.... and last but not least.............

Valarie Kaur - An award winning filmaker, writer and lecturer and a Sikh American that has chosen to take a stand and be a voice of her generation, and her people. The Film is Divided We Fall - " is an end product of a human need to act in the face of racism, violence and disinformation" and I cannot wait to see it. This young, talented women speaks in poetry.. she has such a gift that I swear, she could be the first Sikh Woman President of the United States. She was, is, simply breathtaking in every way. An interview with Valarie. Her blog . The cool thing is she is currently attending Law School at Yale and we are going to have dinner very soon.....

So what did I leave thinking about "How Women Will Change the World in the Twenty-First Century?" That we will come to more significantly share in the power and decision making that shapes our world and in the process we will help redefine what success means and what outcomes are worthwhile. I see women of faith, these women, emerging as powerful voices that speak for justice and community. Our hope comes from men and women working together, in partnership, to heal the world.

Later that day at Bloomberg Auburn hosted another gathering - "Is Good Business Really Good Business? Corporate Character, Conduct and the Bottom Line." The participants were -

Beth Brooke - Global Vice Chair of Public Policy, Ernst and Young ( and a good friend)
Kenneth Feinberg - Special Master for TARP Executive Compensation
David Miller - Director, Princton University Faith and Work Initiative
Peter Rubinstein - Senior Rabbi, Central Synagogue
John Thain - CEO of CIT, Former Head of Merril Lynch and former President of Goldman Sachs ( and my former boss)
Peter Grauer - Chairman of Bloomberg

Unfortunately I cannot 'report' on the off the record conversation but I can share my own opinions on this topic. Of course I believe that ethical behavior is critical in business as it is in life, and I think most if not all people would say that. So the question is do people, do you, do you, do I, behave that way? If not, why not? Do you hold yourself accountable to some absolute level of ethical behavior or do you follow the rule of lowest common denominators? Meaning that if you can find someone that is exhibiting worse behavior then you, then you feel ok about what you are doing. I believe that is what happened on Wall Street, and elsewhere. Take the executive compensation issue. It was in good part the elevated pay of hedge fund managers that pushed Wall Street compensation higher. I heard all these people saying that "Joe Schmoe hedge fund dude make $20 mil last year ( or a billion in some cases ) and he was only a VP at Goldman before that, and I am an MD at GS ( or fill in the blank bank) , and only making $5. That is just not fair." Fair has become way way way to narrow and relative. But then you have to ask yourself how could a person make a billion dollars a year? Because people made the decision to give that person (firm) access to their money (or money they had ficuciary responsibility for ) and paid them 2 and 20 for doing so. No one forced them to do it. They chose to give that manager money and agreed to the compensation structure associated with it. The source of hedge fund assets are largely institutional which means indirectly, we all enabled it.

Do I think it is fair for someone to make a million, twenty million, a billion dollars a year for managing other people's money? What about what Tiger Woods get's paid, is that fair? How about Brad Pitt? Is it fair a child dies at the hand of an abusive parent, or that your sister get's cancer? No... none of this is fair. Yet just because life is not fair does not mean we as individuals should not try to act fairly. All we can do is choose to behave as fairly as we can in our day to day lives which includes being selective about what we do for a living and how we do it, how much money we give away, what products we buy, who we vote for and so on.....

So I don't try to answer the big question about what is fair and instead I rest in knowing God is fair. This is where Auburn and other religious institutions comes in. They create spaces to have these meaningful discussions. Ultimately I believe that I will all be held accountable for how I allocated the resources I have been given - the money, my talents, my opportunities, and so will we all. Life is not fair, God is.

Regardless of your belief system what we all can do is hold CEOs, their boards, their companies accountable, by choosing not to do or not do business with them based on their conduct and their values. This is how we all have the power to affect change. I must have mentioned this quote a hundred times on this blog - "Be the change you want to see in the world."

Happy Sunday.............

Naked Capitalism - The Origins of the Next Crisis

I have to run in to the city but this piece is too good not to share. Read the Origins of the Next Crisis from Naked Capitalism. If you don't subscribe.. you should.

More on Learnvest plus AUDUR!!

I know I just blogged on Learnvest a few days ago, but I have to again. I am an investor in this fantastic company, and it is a great news story in terms of what is going to help drive us out of the economic wasteland. It is all about creating jobs, jobs, jobs and in order to do that you need capital flowing to start-ups and further up the private equity food chain. (Story in CRAINS) Please visit the Learnvest site and sign-up for the daily insights!

One way to get access to women entrepreneurs is through GOLDEN SEEDS, and angel investing network founded by the most fabulous Stephanie Hanbury Brown. Golden Seeds is planning to launch a FUND which leverages their investment process and when they do, count me in!!!

I had the pleasure of Stephanie's company and counsel today in a meeting with the equally fabulous Halla Tómasdóttir, Chairman of Audur Capital, a financial services firm emphasizing feminine values and social responsibility. I met Halla last fall in Deauville France and it feels like we must have been sisters in a former life. You may have read about Audur in the most recent article in New York Magazine's article "If Women Ran Wall Street." What were we talking about? Creating a financial services firm that leads with it's values - risk awareness, profit with principles. valuing emotional and intellectual capital, independence, transparancy and straight talk. If you are smelling something it is a lot of good ideas cooking....

Picture of Jacki, Kristin and Halla of Audur.

Asset Allocation - International Fixed Income

A few entries ago I mentioned that I was preparing for a quarterly asset allocation meeting and promised to share my thinking on the two asset classes I am responsible for - fixed income and currencies. Below please find a brief summary but please, this is not investment advice, it is food for thought....

2009 was clearly a great year for virtually all fixed income. Central banks around the world cut rates in hopes of preventing economic disaster, and by and large they did. By cutting short term rates to near zero, while credit spreads were wide, huge amounts of money poured in to credit products of all kinds tightening spreads dramatically. Since the saver got and still gets literally nothing to stay in short term cash equivalent instruments, the incentive was huge to look for incremental income whether one could find it. This opportunity and incentive, combined with government action in terms of ‘quantitative easing” leaves us where we are today. Spreads across all sectors have tightened dramatically, and it could be argued that overall rates are artificially low because of government purchases, again particularly in the US.

So what next? The direction of interest rates is clearly dependent on economic growth, and this is where we already have begun to see major differentiation by country depending on how quickly their economies have rebounded. Where growth has picked up, and concerns about inflation have begun to take hold, rates have been moving higher. In the US fed funds have remained at zero and there are mixed views as to when it will move higher. A few economists are calling for slightly higher rates by year end, and many others believe the fed will remain on hold well in to 2011 in fear of adding pressure to the housing market and choking off a possible recovery. Where the fed has less control obviously is the longer end of the curve. 10 year rates have been rising and are at the higher end of their recent range, pushing towards 4%. Most economists think that US rates are headed higher overall with a steep yield curve continuing.

What about spread products? In the US it is clear that the massive $1.7 trillion of fed purchases of MBS, Agencies and Treasuries has worked to keep both rates down and spreads tight. Given the treasury has already said they are stopping their purchase programs it seems logical that spreads should widen UNLESS of course other buyers emerge which I and most of the folks I read doubt. There has been significant supply in all sectors in Q1 but particularly in US Treasuries. US corporate issuance was $225 billion in Q1, High Yield was $67 billion, Treasuries $601 billion. So bottom line I would expect at a minimum for the tightening of spread products to end and pressure coming because of supply. On the positive side however, with cash yields anchored at zero, the positive carry of high quality credit remains attractive.

In summary – Q2 may prove a much turning point for the global bond markets on average. For countries experiencing an economic recovery rates may move higher to protect from higher inflation. This may also prove true for the US, but the more likely scenario is the absence of government purchase programs, combined with lots of supply, but pressure on both rates and spreads.

Women's History - Good Bye to Wilma Mankiller...

It is an evening like tonight that is the reason I created this blog. I am so incredibly blessed to have the opportunity to attend amazing gatherings, often in support in great causes, like the one this evening. I was invited by my dear friend Helen LaKelly Hunt, and the most spectacular Jennifer Buffet, to hear about TheWomen 2.0 Media Project. (soon to have a web-site and YOUT UBE clip so stay tuned ) I heard someone say today, that they never met a charitable project they did not like, and I am starting to feel that way as well. "This is a project whose purpose is to preserve and document the history of the women who changed modern America. It will start with a video archive of oral histories, and will become a documentary chronicling the modern women's movement."

There are many incredible people who are affiliated with this project, including Gloria Steinem. Gloria was suppose to be there tonight, but instead, was at the home of Wilma Mankiller , the first female chief of the Cherokee Nation, who passed away today. At around 9 pm the room was silenced, so we could all hear Gloria on the speaker phone tell us what knowing Wilma has meant to her. She spoke of her history, of her brilliance, of her leadership and of her courage. Those were moments I hope to never forget. Though I never had the opportunity to meet Ms. Mankiller, I plan to have a part in preserving her history, as she ( as well as Gloria, Helen and 97 others) is on the list of 100 women whose lives are to be documented with the project.

When people die, their stories are left to be told by someone else, unless they are given the opportunity to tell it themselves, and that is exactly what this project is all about. Too often women's stories are not even told at all. We are so far from gender equality, so far, and the stories of these women who were in many cases the first to..... need to be captured and shared. Please stay tuned for how to support this incredible initiative. ( PS - PBS is their partner in this...)This program simply must get funded. It must.

My best wishes go out to Gloria, and to the friends and family of Ms. Mankiller.

Kathy Lemay on SHEWRITES - plus, BE GENEROUS!!

If you have been reading this blog for a while you know that Kathy Lemay is one of my favorite people on this planet. Kathy is a feminist, an activist, a fund-raising genius, a giving coach, like the best friend ever and now, a published author! Kathy released her first book in January, The Generosity Plan: Sharing Your Time, Treasure, and Talent to Shape the World, and we all need to make it a best seller! Read my interview with Kathy on SHEWRITEs. This book needs to become a movement. Why? To make money for Kathy? ( no.. but that would be nice because she gives a heck of a lot of it away even WHEN she struggles to pay her bills) NO, this needs to be a movement because generosity and kindness is what WILL make the world better and Kathy shows us the way. Kathy is all about " doing what you can with what you have where you are." Here is the super cool part, for me. In about four hours we are going to be sitting on my sofa, having a glass of wine together, and celebrating her work. ( for more on the Generosity Plan )

Learnvest - Round Two - I Believe - Women and Finance

I believe that at the root of this current financial and economic crisis is a lack of basic financial literacy. It is appalling that our children are not taught it in school, and I believe it is every parents responsibility therefore to teach it at home. I also believe the churches and other community organizations should make it a priority as well.

I also believe that at the root of this current financial and economic crisis is a lack of financial responsibility. This includes at an individual level people spending beyond their means, at the government level the same thing, and at the corporate level, particularly for financial institutions, selling and pushing products for which the main goal is making lots of money for themselves and not balancing the interests of their customers and clients. It has been one big money game that has in one way or another meant bad things for everyone!! This has to change, it has to, and it is up to every one of us to make that happen!!

One way I hoped to make a difference in this regard is investing in a start-up company called LEARNVEST. ( http://www.learnvest.com/ ) Learnvest is dedicated to making women more financially educated, empowered, responsible and savvy! It was started by Alexa Von Tobel, the gorgeous and smart young woman you see above. This was a big week for this company as they, we, just completed our venture capital funding round! Read all about it in the New York Times and Fortune. Thank you Accel for believing in us.

Many studies have shown that it is very hard for women to raise VC money, and it is women like Alexa, with great ideas that meet a market need that come to market with scalable businesses that will break it down!! Women and finance is HOT HOT HOT! Women and finance IS WHAT WILL BE DIFFERENT NEXT TIME AROUND. INVESTING IN WOMEN, AND WOMEN OWNED BUSINESSES, IS THE INVESTMENT THESIS THAT CAN MAKE MONEY AND CAN CHANGE THE WORLD FOR THE BETTER.

How you can help! Please spread the word. Join Learnvest's mailing list, encourage others to, help get this company and Alexa exposure!

I am very honored to know Janet Hanson, the founder of the 85 Broads Network. 85 was one of the FIRST women's networks that was created, set up orginally for women alumni of Goldman Sachs. It is now so much more than that. Janet has created a vibrant global platform for women of all ages who come to connect, learn and inspire. There are both live and virtual events going on all the time around the world, but something very special is happening in NYC in April. ( April 24th) 85 Broads is hosting a conference at NYW. To find out more click here. The Title is 2020Vision: The Future is Yours, and promises to be an incredible gathering and learning opportunity. Please consider joining the network, attending the conference, AND spreading the word!

Quarterly Asset Allocation

Sorry for the lack of commentary on the markets of late. Life has just been so busy and it has been challenging to find time to write a thoughtful one. I am picking up my investment reading in the next few weeks in preparation for a quarterly asset allocation meeting that I have with a group of the most amazing women investors on the planet! I would love to take you on this learning journey with me. Over the next couple weeks as I come to grips on my own views I will share it on this site and link to great people and articles that I lean on for their insights.






Here is our quarterly process!

- We each are accountable for reading and summarizing the thinking of two investment guru's. Mine are John Mauldin and Mark Faber. In total we review about 20. We fill out a common template on each person and submit it. This saves the group from having to do all the reading.

- We each have a sector of the market that we are responsible for aggregating the thinking on, layering in our own opinions, and share both with the group the day of the meeting. My area is global fixed income. We have the pundit sheets to use for reference, as well as more detailed sectoral reviews from the various investment firms.

- Each individual shares their current asset allocations and investment vehicle selections. We also have a 'to be considered' list that we continually review. In general we look for the most simple, cost effective way to express a view. We have a favorite EFT list that is vetted that we turn to in order to implement both long term and tactical strategies.

- We review market performance and discuss what has changed since our last meeting.

- We have a lot of discussion about all of the above.

- We come up with a consensus view and make changes to our group model portfolio.

- We personally implement whatever changes we think are appropriate.



Why this is so cool! It forces us to have discipline around the process, it leverages both the networks and the intelligence of the group, and it creates accountability for implementation.

Let the research begin!!

Treasury Meeting - Women in Finance - Sad Face!

I was able to tune in to the Treasury Webcast I mentioned yesterday in my entry but I am sorry to say, major disappointment. I actuallly feel bad saying this as I know the intention was so good and I have much respect for the people participating.

Why the sad face? Because I was so hopeful that after a horrendous financial crisis characterized by almost a complete lack of women in positions of power and influence that this convening would lead to some powerful statements and better yet, action steps, that would help diversify the power structure in finance. Instead most of the discussion seemed trapped in the same old. It was a conversation that has been had over and over again in a million different places. Aren't we past saying that "well a good thing about being a women in finance is that when you go to a conference there isn't a line for the ladies room" and "yes girls can be good at math." ( I may be paraphrasing)

Yes of course we need more mentoring of young women, yes men need to get over their biases, yes we need to encourage more young women to get MBAs, yes people need more financial education, yes women need to know their power, but do we need to gather the most powerful women in finance with the Treasury Secretary in a live web-cast to be talking about it, or are there other things slightly more important? How about a lively debate around demanding financial instiutions diversify their boards? How about a DEEPER conversation about the evidence, the research, that supports the position that adding women in critical mass improves decision making? How about speaking truth about the 'boys clubs' that exist at most financial institutions and how to break through the barriers that continue to exist once and for all? How about brainstorming concrete ways the government working with the private sector can get more money to women entrepreneurs because we KNOW women face barriers in accessing capital? How about getting MEN in the room that actually have the power to change things? We skimmed the surface on all these topics but it truly is time for action!

I really don't mean to be negative as a convening like this is a positive step, but I worry that the box is now checked for having the conversation about women and finance. I am frustrated. We have the evidence ( see the NCRW report and more ) that women face real barriers to entry in finance, and that adding talented women could lead to a more stable system overall, but it could be that we have a whole lot of talk and nothing really happens, and then we have another financial meltdown and people say once again what could be different next time.

Here are some things that we could do:
- Adopt a Critical Mass Principle where all public financial institutions ( esp those that received tarp funds) commit to a minimum 30% women on corporate boards.
- All government oversight committees abide by that standard as well.
- Government run pension funds ensure their management selection process is free from bias and set a target for allocating assets to diverse managers.
-Public/Private Partnerships are explored that help get private investment dollars to women entrepreneurs.

I am sure I could come up with a few more but this blog is turning in to a rant... Have a great night.

US Treasury Special Event - Women In Finance

Tomorrow you may call in for a very special event hosted by the US Treasury in partnership with the White House Special Council for Women and Girls. Unfortunately I cannot make it to Washington for this amazing conversation, though I do have a visit to the White House in May to talk about how to get more talented women in important government positions. The list of women participating is long and impressive. The call is from 10 to 2pm and may be accessed by following this LINK. This event is in partnership with 85 Broads. Go Janet!

Rocking-Horse Winner - The Latest from Bill Gross

Bill's commentaries are always worth a read and this one is no exception. (click here to read) For the full content archive at PIMCO click here. I was fortunate to spend some time at PIMCO recently and truly consider them an outstanding company. If you can believe if they manage $1 trillion in assets as of DEC 2009. Yes, $1 trillion. For that reason alone if you are an investor you want to know what they are thinking.

David Allen - Getting Things Done

I am one busy woman and I continuously struggle with trying to manage it all. Years ago while at Goldman I had the opportunity to meet and work with the man to the left, David Allen. David is a personal productivity guru and I recommend his books, his seminars, his products. I also subscribe to his newsletter and today's was too good not too share!

Here is what David does on a regular basis to stay clear, current and creative....

1. Collect Loose Papers and Materials

2. Get IN to Zero

3. Empty Your Head

4. Review Action Lists

5. Review Previous Calendar Data

6. Review Upcoming Calendar

7. Review "Waiting For" List

8. Review Project ( and Larger Outcome) List

9. Review Any Relevant Checklists

10. Review Someday/Maybe List

11. Be Creative and Courageous

Please visit David's Web-site for more!

"Why Canada Avoided a Mortgage Meltdown"

There is a great OPED in the WSJ today that helps to "call in to question the longstanding US beliefs about the relationship of government subsidized housing finance to home ownership." In short Canada does not have GSEs like Fannie and Freddie, yet has the same levels of home ownership as the US, and 1/10th of the foreclosure problems as the US. News about these organizations has moved further back in our newspapers but the ultimate cost to American Taxpayers will be hundreds and hundreds of billions and deserves our continued attention. In thinking about financial reform due attention must be paid to how these behemoths are reduced in size and influence in a responsible manner. Canada continues to provide a great model for a much more stable and responsible financial system. ( and yes I am Canadian!)

PP History

I have written dozens of entries about these two institutions over the past 2 years. In Jan 2008 on the Huffington Post I said there were going to be HUGE losses to be dealt with and sadly.. I was very right. Here are more comments when they were taken over in September 2008.

Women inthe World - The Daily Beast Plus Abigail Disney...

The Daily Beast hosted a most incredible gathering this past weekend in New York City. Though I hoped to attend a combination of my daughters 10th birthday celebration ( I love you Allie!!!) plus the storm kept me away. Click here and here for more on the event. Thank YOU Daily Beast for hosting this event, for the great writing, and the video content!

I had coffee today with my friend Abigail Disney. If you do not know about "Pray the Devil Back to Hell" read all about it now by clicking here. The film is a story about the women of Liberia and is a must see documentary. Help spread the word by clicking here.

SHE WRITES!!

If you have not heard about SHE WRITES an online community for women writers you soon will. Two friends of mine created it and they are innovating their way to what will become an amazing, game-changing, platform. Kamy Wycoff and Deborah Siegel (pictured) are the brilliant women behind this effort. I am thrilled, honored, excited, and generally beside myself to be part of the advisory board. Check it out, join, share this exciting new opportunity with your women writer friends. What makes it so cool is that these two women are writers themselves, and honor the women for whom they have created this network. They are asking THEM what their needs are and delivering. The platform they are using is NING, co-founded by an awesome women herself, Gina Bianchini who I had the pleasure of meeting for the first time last week. Ning is working in partnership with them to help them develope this web-based business. This is a new model and I am thrilled to be watching it take hold. You go girls!

V, U and W - What Shape Will the Recovery Be? Nouriel Roubini

I am a subscriber to RGE Monitor, an economic and financal information source founded by the legendary Nouriel Roubini. ( yes AKA Dr. Doom... though I don't think he likes that) The work he and his team does is exceptional! This morning he had what is below to say. What do I think? We need to INVEST our way to a better future not SPEND our way to a worse one. Both require money but of course one has a hope of a return. ( see more below)

" A slew of poor economic data over the past two weeks suggests that the U.S. economy is headed for a U-shaped recovery—at best—in 2010. The macro news, including data on consumer confidence, home sales, construction and employment, actually suggests a significant downside risk even to the anemic levels of growth which RGE forecast for H1. The U.S. faces continued challenges in H2—particularly as historic levels of fiscal stimulus fade—and appears far too close to the tipping point of a double-dip recession. This is not the conventional wisdom. Heated debate continues to rage in the United States on whether the economic recovery will be V-shaped (with a rapid return to robust growth above potential), U-shaped (slow anemic, sub-par, below trend growth for at least the next two years) or W-shaped (a double-dip recession). The V camp includes distinguished research groups and individuals such as Ed Hyman’s ISI, Larry Meyer’s Macroeconomic Advisors, the research group of JP Morgan, Michael Mussa and others. The U camp includes—among others—Roubini Global Economics, Goldman Sachs’ U.S. economic research group, PIMCO and Ken Rogoff. As early as August 2009, I worried in a Financial Times op-ed about the risk of a double-dip recession even if our RGE benchmark scenario characterizes the risk of a W as still a low probability event (20% probability) as opposed to a 60% probability for a U-shaped recovery. Others concerned about the double-dip risk include also David Rosenberg, Gary Shilling and John Makin. Ed Hyman and I debated whether the recovery would be U or V-shaped on a February 22 conference call attended by over 2,200 listeners. Since that call, a slew of new U.S. macro data have come out. They have been almost uniformly poor, if not outright awful. Consumer confidence, based on the Michigan survey, has tanked. On the real estate front, new home sales are collapsing again, existing home sales are also falling sharply, and construction activity (both residential and commercial) is sharply down. Durable goods orders are down, initial claims for unemployment benefits remain stubbornly high (way above the 400K mark). Real disposable income for Q4 has been revised downward while real disposable income (before transfers) for January was negative again. The manufacturing ISM index—while still expanding being above 50—has now fallen a couple of notches and its production and new orders index levels are falling, too; and global PMIs suggest a loss of momentum in the global economic recovery. Real inventories look unchanged in Q1 relative to Q4; auto sales were at best mediocre; core CPI was falling and core PCE was close to 0%, suggesting anemic demand and economic weakness. Q4 GDP growth was revised upward to 5.9% but most of it (3.9%) was due to inventories; final sales grew at a 1.9% rate while consumption grew at a dismal 1.7% (down from 2.8% in Q3). Q3 growth has been revised from an initial 3.5% to 2.8% to 2.2%, with final sales growing only 1.7%. So, at the time of maximum policy stimulus (H2 of 2009), final sales were growing only at a pathetic 1.8% average rate. The eurozone (EZ) debt crisis, which RGE discusses in depth in a major new paper, predisposes Europe to a rising double-dip risk, due to the wave of fiscal austerity sweeping the periphery of the EZ. Even if the EZ doesn’t enter a double dip, the growth of domestic demand there will be as or more constrained than in the United States. This, in turn, will be a drag on the potential for U.S. export growth. The U.S. dollar rally on risk aversion reflects this risk. The U.S. dollar is settling back down and the threat of a debt crisis is headed off by a stronger Greek fiscal adjustment and potential adjustment package. But fiscal spending cuts, confidence hits and the looming threat of either rising unemployment or falling wages in the public sector—on top of private sector retrenchment—will remain. A similar retrenchment may well lie ahead in the United Kingdom, given rising fiscal sustainability concerns and the threat of a sterling crisis. Europe then will have great difficulty being a source of demand for U.S. exports, and may even provide impetus to faltering global demand growth, contributing to the threat of a wider double dip across high-income countries."

What do I think? I have for years, years, been more negative on the US economy then the consensus thinking and I remain that way. Bottom line I believe WE, individuals, gov't's, private equity funds ( though less so corporations....) have taken on too much debt and it it time to deal with it. As evidenced by the riots in GREECE, and in California, the public does not want to bear the cost of fiscal restraint, and of course I understand that. BUT... So many new taxes are being added and many are losing faith that those funds are going to good use.

We need innovation to drive job creation on a massive scale and it just does not happen like that. Too many American jobs are low paying service jobs, or rest on a consumer spending beyond thier means. That model is just not working anymore nor should we hope that excess consumerism is what saves us. Green jobs, technology jobs, cutting-edge health care, innovative start-ups are what is needed.... What we need to do is stop spending so much and start INVESTING more. We need to INVEST our way to a better future not SPEND our way to a worse one. Both require money but of course one has a hope of a return. I am BIG on the idea of reframing and that is what we need to do right now.

Remarks by the President and the First Lady at International Women's Day Reception

So, so, so many great readings from International Women's today including the words below from President Obama.

......"But even as we reflect on the hope of our history, we must also face squarely the reality of the present -– a reality marked by unfairness, marked by hardship for too many women in America. The statistics of inequality are all too familiar to us -- how women just earn 77 cents for every dollar men make; how one in four women is the victim of domestic violence at some point in her life; how women are more than half the population, but make up only 17 percent of the seats in Congress, and less than 3 percent of Fortune 500 CEOs.

These, and any number of other facts and figures, reflect the fundamental truth that in 2010, full gender equality has not yet been achieved; that the task of perfecting America goes on; and that all of us, men and women, have a part to play in bending the arc in America’s story upward in the 21st century.

...We’re doing all of this not only because promoting women’s empowerment is one of the best ways to promote economic development and economic success. We are doing it because it’s the right thing to do. "

For the full remarks - click here.

International Women's Day - Let's Celebrate and......

Today is International Women's Day and according to Wikipedia "it is a major day of global celebration of women. In different regions the focus of the celebrations ranges from general celebration of respect, appreciation and love towards women to a celebration for women's economic, political and social achievements."

It is a day to be both grateful for the advancements that have been made, but also be revolutionary in our thinking about what still needs to happen. I have received countless emails ranging from the announcements of new initiatives, to wonderful reflections from thought leaders, so here is a list of 5 things to share on this very special day!

1) My friend Nic Kristoff writes on "Three Proven Steps to Advance the World’s Women, on International Women’s Day" in the New York Times. He asks himself this question - "What interventions get the most bank for the buck in raising the status of women around the world?" Read his wonderful answers but may I suggest one that does not cost a dime but indeed is an intervention - make this moment, the moment, where everyone who believes in gender equity commits to PERSONAL ACTION every day, in some way, to advance this issue. I want to suggest we adopt this phase as a slogal for the movement - EVERYDAY. IN SOME WAY.

2) I want to give a SHOUT OUT to women leaders that I am honored to know and are a huge inspiration to me. Will someone with a BIG platform please write a piece featuring them all !!!!!!!!!!!!!! You are all GAMECHANGERS.

Kamy Wicoff founder of SheWrites, Gina Bianchini co-founder of NING, Deborah Siegel ( aka Girl With Pen ), Courtney Martin - writer, Stephanie Hanbury Brown - Founder of Golden Seeds, Lisa Witter - Fenton Communications, Mia Herndon - ED of The Third Wave Foundation, Kathy LeMay - Writer, the Generosity Plan, Kayrita Anderson - Creator of A Future Not a Past, Bisi Adeleye-Fayemi - Co-Founder and Executive Director of the African Women's Development Fund, Alexa Von Tobel - Founder of Learnvest. And there are so many more............... I honor you all today and everyday!!!!!!!


3) The International Herald Tribune has an ongoing series called the Female Factor - (click here) Please be sure to check back regularly for the latest piece. One particular essay to read is Katrine Bennhold "Risk and Opportunity for Women in 21st Century." Please take the time to read these articles and post comments.



4) A New MS foundation blog launched today (Click here) which will showcase the sharp writing and informed opinions of a community of feminist bloggers from around the nation and the globe.



5) The Glass Hammer is a great new site to visit regularly. It is an online community designed for women executives in financial services, law and business. Visit daily to discover issues that matter, share experiences, and plan networking, your career and your life. ( Click here ) Nicki you and your site rock!!

In closing, again on this special day, I want to thank so many women who have made such a difference to me and especially my grandmother Sadie ( age 92), my mother Rose, my sister Teri, my best buddy in Kelowna Kim, my Goldman Sisters Ann, Mary Ann, Robin, Maria, all my CFG pals, and countless friends........... I love and thank you all.

"The Time Has Come" - Kathryn Bigelow WINS!

What a story. Kathryn Bigelow becomes the FIRST woman to win the Oscar as a Director and her movie, The Hurt Locker, beats Avatar, the top grossing film, for motion picture of the year! I thought the film was incredible and I am glad I stayed up to witness this moment. A glass something broke in Hollywood tonight!

NCRW - Making a Difference Awards Dinner and More..

Yesterday was a special day. Eight years after leaving Goldman Sachs to pursue philanthropic interests, the primary of which being to help advance women’s leadership, I was back at 32 Old Slip, a secondary GS building, to moderate a panel discussing that and more! The convening organization was the National Council for Research on Women, where I a proudly serve as a Board Member Emeriti.


The title given to the conversation was “From Turbulence to Transformation” – challenges and opportunities for advancing real and substantive social change. My fellow panelists were
- Melanne Verveer – U.S. Ambassador-at-large for Global Women’s Issues
- Edith Cooper, Managing Director, Global Head of Human Capital Management at Goldman Sachs
- Chris Grumm, President and CEO, Women’s Funding Network
- Letty Chirwara, UNIFEM Cross Regional Programmes

We had an amazing two hour discussion, and although we did not solve all the world’s problems, it felt like we had some great moments and I hope some solid take-aways.

The issue of gender inequality is a wicked one indeed, but one that is being tackled every moment of every day in a million different ways. Melanne spoke of the passion Secretary of State Clinton has and continues to frame women’s rights as human rights. Edith connected the incredible economic research Goldman has done on the contribution narrowing the gender gap has on growth and GDP to their decision to launch their 10,000 Women Initiative. Letty told stories of Unifem’s economic development work with women in many countries including Kenya, some of whom were present, and how creating markets for their products is transforming communities. Chris articulated the incredible work of women’s funds around the world, and how resourcing women led solutions offer the highest return on investment. Hopefully we will have video available to share as I would need pages and pages to do this conversation justice ……

The discussion was followed by the annual awards dinner where in addition to Ambassador Verveer and Edith Cooper being honored, so was
- Michelle Clayman of New Amsterdam Partners
- Wayne Windborne of Prudential
- Matthew Winkler , Editor-in-Chief, Bloomberg New

I had the additional honor of being seated with Eve Ensler, playwright and Founder of V-day, Senior Correspondent Judy Woodruff and so many other incredible people. A big shout out to my friends and family who came in support of NCRW!

The work of the Council is so important because, as I believe Allison Bernstein, Vice President of The Ford Foundation said, if it did not exist we WOULD have to create it. Credible research informs decision making. We need an organization that works to organize, to convene, to amplify, to create, to promote research and research organizations that focus on women and girls and NCRW is that organization.

I was asked to close the evening’s program and in addition to asking for support for NCRW I asked that everyone in the audience consider this…. Are you doing enough? Can you do more? How can you “do what you can, with what you have, where you are, to make a difference around gender inequality?” I ask you dear reader to consider this as well................. as am I.

The Global Gender Gap Report

I am doing some last minute research for the panel I am moderating tomorrow and wanted to link you all to the Global Gender Report, just in case you have not seen it. This report is produced by the World Economic Forum and "assesses countries on how well they are dividing their resources and opportunities among their male and female populations, regardless of the overall levels of these resources and opportunities." How does the US rank you might ask? 31st. 31st! To find out what 31 countries are ranked higher, check out the full report. ( And my children ask me why I do the work I do????? ) I have a whole series of events, gatherings and conversations this week so lots to blog about over the weekend!

Canada Wins Gold in Men's Hockey!

I had to capture this moment... my friend and fellow Canadian Mandy and I celebrate an amazing ending to the Olympic Games in Canada! It was so special to be able to go to my home province with my 9 year old daughter, catch a few events, and to be back home in CT to watch this final event. I spent the first 22 years of my life in BC, and 4 in the truly spectacular city of Vancouver. They did a great job hosting! I am left feeling so inspired and grateful. Hope you are too.....

Ben Bernanke in Washington

I am in San Fran doing a funding raising training with the most amazing Tuti Scott of Imagine Philanthropy but I did catch a few minutes of the Bernanke testimony this morning. First observation, it is truly scary how little some of the committee members know about what the Fed does and the role of monetary policy. Scary. Some of the questions were just plain ridiculous. Second observation was this key comment when asked about interest rates - "We have made it clear that we will keep rates unusally low for an extended period of time." The markets liked that comment - see the story on yahoo.