Friday, January 11, 2008
The Markets 2008 - Yes, a Recession
Well it has been said that if you keep saying the same thing for long enough, you are bound to be right at some point. Those of you who know me know that I have been negative on the overall equity markets for a while now with the main reason being that sooner or later the world was going to recognize that the US ( gov't, consumers, investors....) had become addicted to credit. Yes, we are a country of credit junkies. For so many they got a little, and it felt good, so they kept going back for more and more. In the market for a house you could not afford? Come on over, and let me see what I can do for you? Need that big screen TV, no problem, we will give it to you know and you can pay later. Want to buy a big office building assuming rents will go up forever at 95% occupancy? Not only were the bankers in line to lend, but the hedge fund managers were too. Two words you do not want to hear in the financial markets are negative contagion and you are already seeing it, the subprime market was only the beginning. So yes I think the US is headed for a recession as we unwind the effects of too much credit availability. In case you want to get even more depressed, read on about my outlook on inflation... not pretty.