The Day, Gloria Steinem, Women Moving Millions, The Dinner Party

Wake up. Get ready. Train. Delay. JP Morgan. The Rising Power of Women in Philanthrophy. Unicef. Jennifer Buffet. The NOVO Foundation. The Girl Effect. Laurie Tisch. Town and Country Magazine. “Never ask for permission, ask for forgiveness.” Money. Social Change. Bake Sales. Recognition. Influence. Causes. Wealth. Investing in Women. Lucy Liu. Superheros. Rising. Believing in zero. Children. Immunization. Vaccines. Clean water. HIV Aids. Child mortality. Joanna Krotz. The Guide to Intelligent Giving. Baron Capital. Gloria Steinem. Circle Financial Group. Women Moving Millions. The Ms. Foundation. Outrageous Acts. Sisterhood. “The injustice is so great that surely if we point it out they will want to change it.” The Woman Effect. Happy Birthday. Shared Experience. Ignoring boundaries. And what about men? Community Organizing. Just do it. Don’t live in the what if. The Zero Club. Critical Mass. Women on Boards. Consumer activism. Managing money. Gratitude. Sisterhood. Community. Train. The Economy. John Mauldin. The $33,000,000,000 Question. Is it over? Bear market rally. Debt. Deleveraging. Unemployment. Arrive. Horses. Dinner. Sermon. Sin. Homework. American Idol. Adam and Danny. The Penderwicks. Blogging. A day well lived.......

Tomorrow begins the celebration of the Women Moving Millions Campaign. I hope you will read all about it in the press in the days to follow. I am deeply honored to be part of this community of women. I want to mark this moment, this day, this month, this year as an acceleration point, maybe a turning point, in the womens movement. Why? Because I believe that women have and are increasingly going to use their resources, and specifically their money, to drive the change they want to see in the world. This is about collective action. This is about the power of the purse. This is about aligning our values with our money not only in how we give, but how we spend, save and invest. Tomorrow as we gather at the Brooklyn Museum around Judy Chicago's The Dinner Party, we will indeed be taking our seat at the table.

Motherhood

"The most important thing she'd learned over the years was that there was no way to be a perfect mother and a millions ways to be a good one."

- Jill Churchhill, Crime and Punishment (1989)

Mother’s day is a big day for me. Why? Because it is the day I truly reflect on how well I am doing at the most important role God has given me. ( yes I wish it was a day I just slept in and watched movies in bed) My roles as a wife, a daughter, a professional, a giver, a friend ….. are all important too, but being a mother, that is at the top of the list. My son just turned 12 on Friday and my daughter recently turned 9. My husband wanted more children, and in hindsight that would have been nice, but it just did not work out that way. Honestly I felt when I was pregnant motherhood was too much of me. It was all of me. Fully pregnant you cannot go anywhere without it being ‘the thing’ about who you are, and it was not comfortable then and it is still not comfortable. Being a mother will never be for me, THE THING, I am. It will be one of the things I am, and yes, the most important thing I am. Maybe that is why I always worry whether I am ‘good enough?’ When I pulled out the quote book this morning and read the 100 that are listed on this topic this is the one that really resonated. It is easy to figure out why – because I have yet to accept it. I don’t live in the certainty that I am a really good parent, I live in the hope of it. One day when my kids are older, I pray they will look at me with truth and love in their eyes and say “Mom, you were and are many things, and being a GOOD parent was one of them.”

So may I suggest that this be your gift to your mother today? Call her and say “Mom, you should know that I feel you have always been a good mother. Not because you were perfect, but because you did the best you could and that down deep, I always knew that.”

I am sending out a big shout out to all my readers who are mothers, and all of those who want to be one day. Blessings…………… Jacki

Knowledge, Activism and Engagement

What role are you going to take in shaping our future? I started this blog a year and one half ago because I was so fired up about what was going on in the economy, and what we were being 'told', that I just had to respond in a more public way. I have written much about the economy, about the markets, and most importantly, about what we can do to change the world for the better. I ask you to make this moment the moment, that you decide to truly engage. Figure out what you are passionate about, what matters to you, what makes you nuts, and get engaged. Really engaged. Our future is not tomorrow, or next week, or next year, it is being shaped this very moment. Speak out, act out and be the change you want to see in the world.

"First they came for the communists, and I did not speak out-- because I was not a communist;

Then they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out-- because I was not a socialist;

Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out-- because I was not a trade unionist;

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out-- because I was not a Jew;

Then they came for me-- and there was no one left to speak out for me.

Martin Niemoeller – German pastor and theologian in Nazi Germany

What is Going on? Chrysler and more......

There has been a lot going down lately that has me more then a little concerned. First read this piece by Cliff Asness, hedge fund manager. AQR Asset Management. I admire his courage in writing this piece. I am not in complete defense of hedge funds, but I do think this man is speaking a lot of truth. It is ironic as just this evening at a meeting at my old firm, Goldman Sachs, I mentioned to someone the need for concerned investors and citizens to do a skill building session in "community organizing." That was before I read to the end of the article. Now you have to listen to this interview with a lawyer that is representing the senior bondholders. You have to listen to this. Is this America?

"The Next Housing Bust"

The caption in bubbles to this oped is - "Meet the federal subprime lending programs." I remember the day last year when the annoucement came out saying that the gov't was going to up the FHA insurance limit to $719,000 from $319,000 as a 'solution' to the mortgage crisis. In fact I may have even written about it. For the full scoop you have to read the piece, but bottom line, the problems with FHA loans are going to be huge and costly. I recently read in a report that came from T2 Partners LLC the following statistics: nearly 8% of mortgages on 1-4 family homes were delinquent or in foreclosure at the end of 2008, 24% of homeowners with a mortgage owe more then the home is now worth and among people who bought homes in the past 5 years, 30% are underwater. This housing problem, and the losses associated with it, are so far from over.

Nic Kristof and the Womens Funding Network Conference

I just returned from four days in Atlanta where I attended the Womens Funding Network’s annual conference. I have enough material to blog daily for the next month, and honestly, I do not know where to begin, so I might as well begin at the end.
Our closing keynote was delivered by the most amazing, two-time Pulitzer prize winning journalist, Nicholas Kristof, whom I had the honor of introducing. Nic is a passionate and informed voice on issues that matter to me most: human trafficking, rape, genocide, poverty, health, education, human rights, gender equality and more. His message today was a simple one, the key to economic development is investing in women. Sound familiar? I hope so. You have read about it many times on this blog.

He sees “gender equity as the issue of our century.” I cannot tell you how refreshing it is to hear a man say that. So why is it about women? Because of a logic model called the “woman effect.” When you provide economic and human security for a woman, she does so for her family, for her community and the world. He gave this as an example. A study was done in Africa that showed that when an extra dollar of income went in to the hands of a man 20% of it was spent on alcohol, tobacco, and prostitution, and only 2% on education. When that money went in to the hands of a woman, that money went for caring for her family, including education. That is just one example, and of course there are plenty of men for which this is not true, but sadly, for many it is.

It was an amazing weekend and I come back energized, infused, and activated to continue the work I do to make this world a more just and equitable place for women and girls. If you missed this year, do come next year. You will be glad you did.

Conference material will be available soon on the Womens Funding Network Web-site.

John Thain, Merrill, B of A and the US Government

I have purposefully not written anything about John Thain since he left Merrill, but now that he has chosen to speak out, so will I. I had the honor of working for John for my entire 14 year career at Goldman. Early on he co-headed the mortgage securities department where I was a trader, and at the end of my tenure I worked directly for him in the executive office. He truly is a quality human being and it broke my heart to read the stories that were being written about him regarding his departure from Merrill. I did not believe half of what I read and I am happy that he finally chose to speak out about what really went down. Every Merrill employee that I have spoken to since he joined that firm said they thought he did a great job. At Goldman John had a stellar reputation, and was known for his strong worth ethic, his integrity, his raw intellectual ability and his compassion. I cannot imagine how challenging it was to come in to the head role at Merrill when he did, but I am sure he did the job to the best of his ability. Was he perfect? No... but tell me someone who could have done better.

For a must read OPED the Bank of America/ Merrill merger I encourage you to read this piece that appeared yesterday in the WSJ. ( the same day as above) So much trust has been broken and it is hard to imagine how we are going to build it back. There are going to be books written about how this deal got done and the whole truth is yet to come out.

I am off again, this time to Atlanta for the Women’s Funding Network conference. Sorry the blogs have been few and far between as heaven knows there is MUCH MUCH to write about.

Ugly Headlines, Happy News, Green Shoots, and Where to put your Money.

I am not sure what headline/story upset me more today. Could it be “IMF sees 1.3% drop in Global Output?” Or maybe “Freddie Mac Finance chief found dead in home.” Now I think it would have to be “Taliban Seize Pakistan Area Near Capital.” Not that I want to walk around with my head in the sand or anything but perhaps one new business idea would be to launch a new web-site that only reports on good things that are happening in the world. So funny, after just typing that I thought hmm…. I wonder if that domain is available – http://www.happynews.com/ – sure enough it is not, the site exists, and it is all about up to the minute news meant to lift your spirits. How cool is that? Their tagline is “Real News. Compelling Stories. Always Positive.” Add that address to your favorites and remember to visit it regularly.

So needless to say the news out there is just horrible. For a well articulated piece on why I think this rebound in the market is short lived read Martin Wolf’s piece in yesterday’s FT called “Why the ‘green shoots’ of recovery could yet wither.” I, like him, believe that we are still in the ‘early stages of a long and painful deleveraging and restructuring’ process. The IMF just recently upped their estimate of system wide loan losses up to $4.1 trillion and how much of that has been accounted for? I don’t know but it someone has the answer please do share. All these massive government programs are working hard to cushion the global economy’s free fall, but bottom line; we are still in a downward trajectory, albeit at a slower rate than earlier in the year.
So what does this mean from an investment perspective? For me it means remain defensively positioned, maintain liquidity, and look for lower entry points for both domestic and international equities. In the fixed income space I think opportunities do exist and I will pay attention to funds that are emerging out of the TALF and Public/Private Partnership Programs. I think you need to be careful about adding too much duration in your portfolios as although there is short term deflation, I worry longer term about the opposite. More importantly however is the massive amounts of debt issuance the government needs to do combined with how much debt that is already outstanding. YES the fed is buying treasuries, especially at around 3% on 10 year notes, but trying to effectively front run the fed and ignoring fundamentals is a dangerous game indeed. Might be ok for professional traders that are in the flow of information and flow, but for you and me??? Not good. I did spend a lot of time today talking to some exceptionally smart and experienced guys who are launching a venture capital fund in the digital media space, which was really fun. Their primary focus area is in gaming and is amazing to think about how so many other areas, like media, are being game ‘ified’.

Well my pillow is calling my name so of to sleep for a mighty early wake up call. I am heading to Colorado tomorrow for the weekend so the next post may not be until Monday. Wishing you all a wonderful weekend…..

Green Shoots or Wishful Thinking plus PIMCO

I have spent the past few days getting prepared for our (Circle Financial Group's) quarterly asset allocation meeting and have been trying to gather and digest information from some of the country's leading investment thinkers. I can honestly say that in my now 21 years in the financial world, this moment is truly an exceptionally challenging time to come up with a long term investment strategy, with a mindful short term tactical bent. Arguably it was harder a few months back when everything seemed to be imploding, but even now there is still a tremendous amount of uncertainly about whether the massive government interventions will take effect, and at what long term cost. The economic news continues to be terrible, and these green shoots are truly small indeed. Everytime I look outside at my hydrangea plants, which currently look like a mass of dried out sticks ( see above) with a just a hint of green on a few stems, I think of our economy. I think of how last summer these plants were lush and full and vibrant, and now, well.... you get the picture. To carry on the analogy the Fed has certainly added a lot of fertilizer, but in order for plants to grow there also has to be water and sunlight. All three of these factors are relevant and likewise, many things have to be present for there to be meaningful econonomic stablity and growth. The Fed and the Treasury can do what they can do, but they can't do everything that is needed to stop the decrease in housing and other asset values and stimulate demand in the global economy. Food for thought is always provided by our friends at PIMCO - read Bill Gross's latest here. ( The Future of Investing: Evolution or Revolution?)

"The Grasp of Your Hand"

LET ME NOT PRAY TO BE SHELTERED FROM DANGERS, BUT TO BE FEARLESS IN FACING THEM.

LET ME NOT BEG FOR THE STILLING OF MY PAIN, BUT FOR THE HEART TO CONQUER IT.

LET ME NOT CRAVE IN ANXIOUS FEAR TO BE SAVED, BUT HOPE FOR THE PATIENCE TO WIN MY FREEDOM.

GRANT ME THAT I MAY NOT BE A COWARD, FEELING YOUR MERCY IN MY SUCCESS ALONE: BUT LET ME FIND THE GRASP OF YOUR HAND IN MY FAILURE.

RABINDRANATH TAGORE

" 1861-1941"

My friend Kim sent this prayer to me. She has been such a support to her friend Sam who is dying from cancer. This wonderful woman and mother is only in her forties. Kim and Sam, I am just sending you both by love and God's warm embrace.

5 Things We Have Learned Over the PastMonth - According to ML's David Rosenberg

David is one of my favorite investment and economic thinkers. Below are some recent thoughts too good not to share.

"There are five things we have learned over the past month

1. Whenever the S&P 500 slices to a new low, it’s time to cover shorts. Every new low in the past 18 months was met by a vigorous bounce, especially the last two.

2. Be wary of upward spasms where financials and consumer discretionary lead the way, because they typically go into these bear market rallies with the largest short positions. Also, be skeptical when the rally is led by low-quality stocks.

3. Investors seem to be enamored with the second derivative (rate of change in the rate of change) in the economic data even though bear markets usually end just in advance of a turnaround in the first derivative (the rate of change itself).

4. There seems to be confusion between an actual improvement in the economy and an improvement relative to the post-Lehman trend, when the economic indicators began to implode at annual rates of 30%-70%. Even Wily Coyote hits the ground at some point.

5. The profits recession is two-thirds of the way through; there is another one third to go. Equity investors pay for profits, and with one-third of the downturn still ahead of us, it is difficult for us to be excited about any sustainable rally in stock market."

Susan Boyle - You have to watch this.

Need to feel good today, you have to watch this. The lesson here........... be open to every possibility in life. Tue beauty comes in a lot of different packages. ( it is a seven minute Youtube video)

The Next Shoe to Drop May be Munis according to Buffet.

A small piece in the right hand corner of the WSJ caught my attention just now so had to share. The title of the piece "Muni Bonds Keep Buffett Up at Night". A few pages before I had read about the unprecedented fall in sales tax revenues and it's impact on local budgets. "In the next two fiscal years, 47 states are likelyto face budget shortfalls of a combined $350 bb, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorites." It goes on to say that "Moody's assigned a negative outlook to the creditworthiness of every local government in the US." Read that line again. I like how this writer ends the piece - "if the Oracle of Omaha is concerned, investors should listen." Now every muni bond is different so I am not saying run out and sell your muni funds, but at the same time, you better be sure you know what risk you do have. For most munis you are likely owning a scant 1 to 2% on the short end, so you have to ask yourself if that incremental yield is worth the incremental risk? I am beginning to think that a portfolio with the safest of the safe, barbelled with true high yield paper, might prove a lot better then once high quality paper that now has substantial risk of downgrade or worse. Remember last year when money funds broke the buck and the government had to rush in and guarantee them? One has to think all is possible in this market.

Goldman Sachs - A Great Quarter!

How could I not do a brief post on the GS earnings report? Wow and congrats. Net income of $1.81 billion for the quarter is nothing short of amazing given the environment. What that is telling us about the industry in general is less obvious. Some will do well, some will not. There is no doubt that Goldman was early to recognize that there were going to be major problems in credit product, and i believe turned the ship around quite well. Though I have not done any homework on this, I would assume that they are making a lot of money due to very wide bid ask spreads. With many of the competitors know gone, they are well positioned on the trading side to print a lot of money. They are also raising some mega sized funds in credit products which will generate some nice fees, but man of man, some of their funds have had major issues and I am sure that has caused problems with many a private wealth client. I should now because I am in some of them. This has got to be true of almost all the large firms that take a fairly traditional approach to how they run their business - meaning have clients own a lot of equities, private equity and hedge funds. Most people I know are doing a serious review of their providers and really holding them accountable for performance, as one should always do. The problem for many is - where do you go? Who is better then the next? Good question and one I should truly address in a how to evaluate a wealth manager essay! I have learned so many investing lessons over the years and I am trying hard to put them in to practise. A few of them are: keep it simple if you can, maintain liquidity as you never know when you might need it, don't get talked in to something you do not understand, try to have transparency in all your investments, proper due diligence pays off and most importantly for me is , trust my instincts! Have a good evening....

Happy Easter!

Sorry for the lack of posts. We decided to take a last minute trip to BOSTON for a few days prior to EASTER. I hope you all had a wonderful celebration. This holiday is such a special one for me. It is a celebration of hope, of forgiveness, and of possibility. Our pastor gave a beautiful definition of faith today that I have to share. "Faith is reason reflecting rightly upon what is true." I like that...........

The Market Moves Downward plus Credit Losses Mount

The markets reversed course yesterday whether due to exhaustion from the strong move up, profit taking on recent purchases, the anticipation of some soon to be reported horrible earnings numbers, or news that credit related losses continue to rise dramatically. According to RGE monitor "IMF Boosts Global Loss Estimate To $4 Trillion: RGE Monitor Calculates $1.8 Trillion Fall On U.S. Banks/Brokers, $2 Trillion On European Banks, Remainder On Asia." I remember last year when the talk was that losses could hit $1 billion and the raging bears were predicting $2 to $2.5. The question is, and I will have to dig for the answer, how much of this losses have been effectively taken. With the new rules on mark to market accounting, meaning you don't have to, they can be hidden for some time. It is somewhat ironic to me that almost on the same day the gov't announced this private/public program to rid the banks of toxic assets, they changed the rules so they were less incentivized to do so. What also seems to be a little odd is that given the total losses are projected to be in the US around $1.8 trillion, if the gov't just figured out a way to eat a good part of that upfront, would that not have been a lot cheaper then what they have done already over the past 12 months? Yes big number, hard to swallow, probably impossible to sell to congress and the public.... but, as my mother always use to say when taking a band-aid off me - "rip it off quickly, it hurts, but it is over".

A Quick Look at the Quarter plus a look at BUBBLES

I have been busy collecting all my month end and quarter end summaries but it is likely that by time I can gather it all together and make it as pretty as I want it to look it will be outdated, so let me give you a quick and dirty version instead.

Headline: March was good, the quarter was bad, but it could have ended a lot worse.

The Dow ended the month up close to 8% but closed the quarter down 13%. Similar for the S&P. The Nasdaq faired much better with a plus 11% month, and only down 3.1% for the year. The strong performers globally were China, India and Brazil. The big news was really the strong move up from the lows in the month of March. 676 was the low close on the S & P on March 9th It went on to hit 797 at the end of the month and arrived at 835 today. An impressive bounce indeed. As I pour through my stack of papers I will add to this post some good month end summaries so we all have it to look back on.

There was a particularly good piece in the journal today that is worth reading called "From Bubble to Depression." It is a good study of the recent housing bubble and helps to explain why this crisis is of a particular variety - the too much leverage variety. "It appears that we're witnessing the second great consumer debt crash, the end of a massive consumption binge." This reminded me of something I wrote at the beginning of last year - my second oped ever...

"His ( Treasury Secretary Paulson's) advice to spend our way out of this temporary problem may well prove a ridiculous suggestion for an economy diseased from extreme over-consumption in part caused by a lack of appropriate financial oversight as well as overly stimulating monetary policy. Who ultimately will claim responsibility for America's addiction to buying stuff, made possible by cheap money and corner-store credit dealers? Though I am not quick to blame any one party, the first step in our collective healing process, as any AA member will tell you, is to admit you have a problem. " Judging by the country's new found interest in saving.... I guess the process of healing has begun.

The Public/Private Progam to Rid Banks of Toxic Assets - OH MY!

There is so much to write about right now I cannot even see straight but unfortunately so is my general to do list. So again this one is going to be quick. This public private partnership that has been offered as a solution to the problem of toxic assets is a joke. When I first read about it last week I wrote that it sounds 'too good to be true' for those who are allowed to participate and that the risk would be that the public (taxpayers) figures that out and would go 'NUTS'. That is happening. Mark my words this program is going to blow-up. Yesterday this piece in the FT highlights the problems with the program: "Why Geithner's plan in the taxpayers' curse." Today the front page featured this story "Bailed-out bank groups consider buying toxic assets from rivals." In my search I found another BLOG has picked up on the insanity of this - MonkeyBusiness ( what a great name). Add to this the suspension of mark to market accounting for financial institutions which again, I could write pages about, and you just have to throw up your hands. This will result in an accounting windfall while hiding the fact that banks are still loaded with loans marked at prices they will never see again. OH WAIT!!! They may see them again because the treasury has found a way for a handful of institutions to buy them at too high of a price because the government is offering them free money and limited downside. So much so that now they are trying to buy the junk from each other. It is all a big shell game and the taxpayer will most certainly be the ones to pay. How can it end nicely? So much more to say but have to go.................

6 hours later - just read another article talking about the problems of this program - worth adding to the collection. READ THIS.

Welcome to America

I am going to work on a quick market summary for the quarter but this is a must read. (My husband ( ex emerging market trader ) could have written it, as for many. many years he lived it, and has been talking about the many issues raised in this piece for some time). The piece is from the Washington Post - "Welcome to America - The World's Scariest Emerging Market." I love this line..."On Wall Street there is an old joke that the longest river in the emerging-market economies is "de Nile" - very sad and very true. Let's hope the 10% probability does not come to be....... Read it and think.

PIMCO - Bill Gross, and Bank Regulation

I hope if you are reading this blog you are a already a subscriber to the Financial Times - but if you are not, you should be. The features they have been doing on the "Future of Capitalism" have been generally exceptional and today's entry is no exception. Please read this piece on "Bank Regulation" - which outlines a roadmap for the G20 meeting. Bottom line - Holy Smokes. This is indeed a tall mandate for international cooperation the likes of which we have never seen. Another tidbit I found particularly interesting today was the deal struck between China and Argentina. "China, which is pushing to end the dominance of the dollar as a worldwide reserve, has agreed a RMB 70 bn currency swap with Argentina that will allow it to recieve renminbi instead of dollars for its exports to the Latin American Country." They have been doing a number of these deals in pursuit of their interest " to replace the dollar with an enhanced version of the IMF's unit of account, the special drawing right or SDR." Future of Us dollar as a reserve currency? Modified Bretton Woods says my hubby. Mindblowing....

There is a new commentary out from Bill Gross of PIMCO. These are always must reads.

AIG - I QUIT!!!

Sorry this is a few days behind, but it is never-the-less an important read. Finally I was able to read something from an AIG employee - thank you to the New York Times for publishing it. This took a lot of courage to make this public given the outrage directed at anyone working at AIG. Personally I know two people named as bonus recipients and they too, had nothing to do with the billions of losses and have been persecuted in the press. They are also wonderful, hardworking, upstanding people. I do understand that the public is upset and I agree that executive compensation is an issue that should be given appropriate attention, but what has happened to these AIG employees was just not right. Period, end of story. Here is the piece - DEAR AIG - I QUIT.

DAvid Rosenberg - A Farewell and his Views

David is one of my favorite economists and sad for us, will soon be leaving his role at Merrill Lynch to join the buy side firm of Gluskin, Sheff and Associates in Canada. (he is Canadian!) I am not sure how many reports we are yet to receive for him, so I thought I would give his latest special mention. Up front I want to say that David has been SPOT ON for years about what is going on in the economy and the markets, so his thoughts are worth paying attention to. His latest report came out on the 26th, and suggests that this is in fact a bear market rally, so be prepared. He opens saying - “Disappointment may ultimately set in to the equity market. There is an old saying that the stock market is ruled by optimists and the bond market is populated by pessimists. The winners are the realists.” As an ex-bond trader, married to an ex-bond trader, and friends with lots of bond and equity folks, I would absolutely agree with that statement and his conclusion. So what is realistic? When I met with David a while back he suggested that the S and P could trade in the 600s, and this was well before it actually did in March. I believe still thinks we will see those levels again, and perhaps even lower. The economy is just not on solid footing. What will be signs that it is? “We’ve said it one and we shall say it again that it all comes down to housing, the quintessential leading indicator. There is simply no sustainable recovery in the economy, the stock market of the financial backdrop until l we get some clarity on the outlook for residential real estate prices. And, in order to establish at least a tentative floor under home prices, we would have to see the new unsold housing inventory recede to at least eight months supply.” There you have it.

David I am really, really, really going to be missing having access to your thinking but I congratulate you on the move and wish you the very best!

An always must read is Alan Abelson's weekly opening commentary in BARRONs - "In Dante's Footsteps." This weeks is particularly funny, though not particulalry uplifting. He mention's David's departure as well.... not surprising that Alan is a big fan as well.

Stonehenge, The Markets, Dear Diary............

The equity markets move up again - up over 20% in a couple of weeks. The real question of course is this a bear market rally or are we on the road to solid ground? I hope the latter but I still think is the former. The banking crisis is far from solved and the economy is still in deep trouble. Unemployment is off the charts and that is what they are counting. Consumer spending is still nose diving and let's face it, even those with money to spend are saying what the heck am I doing spending it on stuff I do not need.Wall Street is a big mess with all the Washington hoopla and talented people are jumping ship to smaller boats left right and cente ASAP to try to get out from under the microscope, and that is a good thing.

It is interesting being in London and reading the local paper. Europe is a mess. I am sure you read that the Czech government was unseated, and their is much unrest going in to the G20 meeting next week. Much of France is on strike and Germany seems the only country that is talking about fiscal discipline. Over to CHINA I was struck by the call by the Finance dude to create an international reserve currency. It does make a lot of sense but can it happen quickly? There was an ad in the FT by some think tank saying that should be an outcome of the meetings next week. I think it is a very good idea but can it happen??? So much uncertainty. So much change. So much up in the air. So many wildcards. I am praying for a good outcome. Praying hard.

Speaking of prayer, just a few hours ago I was standing in the chilly wind looking at Stonehenge. One cannot imagine how these massive stones, originating from Whales, could possibly end up there, in that form. This all happened 5000 years ago. I stood there, with my 11 year old sitting on the ground sketching what he saw from 3 different perspectives, and I prayed. I prayed for the leaders of our nations to have solutions. I prayed for people to band together, help eachother, and support GOOD decision making and appropriately protest bad ones. I prayed for people that I know are hurting. I prayed for the world.

a quick PS....

Geithner appeared before the House Financial Services Committee today - here is a good summary of what he said.

Also my fav thinker from ML, David Rosenberg, is leaving ML and moving to the buy side. I will greatly miss his thinking but I wish him and his family the best.

Market Moves Up and 'Women Better Fund Managers Than Men"

While I was spending the day riding a bus around London the market exploded on the news that the FED was doing even more to bring capital to troubled assets. I have not read the details but on the face of it it looks like they are helping a lot of folks to make some easy money. Given the outrage about bonuses I am a little worried that if the public truly understands what is going on, they might not like it very much. There are so many mixed messages coming from Washington and the FED that it truly has me worried. They realize they need the private sector but while they are reaching with one hand, they are slapping, punching, beating with the other. The firms that got 'bail-out capital' seem doomed and those that did not, are getting offered free money, lots of leverage and limited downside risk. Am I missing something? Regardless we have had a healthy bounce off the lows in the equity market but i continue to believe we are still in deep, deep do do. The problems in the housing market, in consumer spending, in manufacturing, in employment ... are not going away any time soon. Sorry. ( iIwas going to put a sad face too.. but the happy one looks, well, happy)

On another note...............

"Women better fund managers then men" - That was the name of an article in today's FT by Heather Dale. I wonder if someone gave her a heads up as to the soon to be released paper from the National Council for Research on Women! This is a project I have been working on with them and we are so close to the finish line I am beside myself. We are looking for sponsors so if you have any suggestions please send them my way. As soon as I get back from London I am hitting the pavement with this important piece of work. It is a comprehensive look at all the research we could find on the topic with a lot of added insight and of course, a solution set! Very exciting....

The Future Of Capitalism

Greetings from London! All week the FT has had feature stories on this topic and Friday's was another must read entitled "Do Not Let The Cure Destroy Capitalism." The authors suggest that much of the reponse to the problems have been midguided. They identify "three basic flaws in the current approach to the crisis. They are an overly broad diagnosis of the problem, a misconception that market failures are readily overcome by government solutions and a failure to focus on the long-run costs of current actions." They urge the powers that be - 'do not deviate far from a market-oriented global economic system that has served us well for 30 years." Although I do not agree that the system has in fact served everyone well, it has not, I do still fundamentally believe in capitalism as an economic system. Or should I say capitalim with appropriate controls and oversight.

AIG bonus craziness. I understand why people are upset. I understand why many feel that money should be paid back, but it is completely unacceptable what is going on. It is completely unacceptable that some dude in Washington should be allowed to keep his job after saying that the people who received bonuses should go committ suicide. I don't care if he did not mean it. He should be gone. Period. End of story. As for taxing people 90% on their bonuses. That is the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard and likely unconstitutional. Perhaps, perhaps for companies where the government is the majority shareholder, but they are NOT for almost all of these companies. Yes have oversight but these companies have to be able to run their businesses and the upset caused by this will be devastating and besides, it is just not right. All people who work in financial services are not responsible for the mess we are in. If we MUST finger point then let's point it right back to Washington. It is the responsibility of government to look after the rights and needs of the people and the failure of proper oversight of the sector was mindblowing. Now, NOW, they want to pass the blame and publically flog every wall streeter they can get their hands on. This language, this behavior, has to stop or their will be riots in the streets. It has gone way too far and risks going even further if the leadership of this country does not say... ENOUGH.

Pictured is the London Eye... very cool I must say.